10. Jose Bautista
(TOR)
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| Jose Bautista |
With that in mind, I’ll start with number 10, Jose Bautista. Bautista has put up unreal
power numbers in the last few seasons, but a wrist injury that he suffered last
year worries me. Power is his complete game because he is not going to wow
anyone with his average (.241 last year, .253 for his career). Despite his
injury he was able to put up 27 bombs, but I would be cautious to draft him too
high, relying on him to produce at the level that he has in previous years
coming off of a serious wrist injury that could definitely limit his power
numbers.
It’s hard for me to bet against a guy who hit 134 homeruns
between September 2009 and July 2012, but he is definitely under my radar for
players to be cautious of because of his wrist. If healthy, I have no doubt
that Bautista could produce at the level that he has the last 3 years (roided
or not).
9. Carl Crawford (LAD)
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| Carl Crawford |
Crawford is another guy coming off of an injury, but I do
not think that his injury will hinder him as much as Bautista’s. My concern
with Crawford is his tremendous “upside.” He’s a guy who was virtually a
fantasy MVP in 2009 hitting .305 with 15 bombs and 60 stolen bases. But now on
the wrong side of 30, fantasy owners should be wary about drafting Crawford too
high, expecting similar numbers. He isn’t likely to put up steal numbers
anywhere near his old totals and I don’t really expect him to hit above .280
either. And as a guy without great power numbers, I feel as though there are a
lot better players that could give the same value as Crawford much lower in the
draft.
Now as a Dodger fan, I really hope that Crawford absolutely
tears up the NL West this year. I would be ecstatic if he proved me wrong, but
unfortunately I think Crawford’s best years are behind him and there are a lot
better values in the outfield for where Crawford is projected to be picked.
8. Jim Johnson (BAL)
Johnson is a guy who had a stellar year last year as the
closer for the Orioles racking up 51 saves. But when you look at the overall
picture, his saves don’t seem as impressive. The Orioles set an MLB record for
one run games last year and Johnson clearly benefitted from it statistically
last year. He is a great pitcher, don’t get me wrong, but I find it extremely
unlikely that he can put up numbers anywhere near his last year’s total.
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| Jim Johnson |
Also concerning are Johnson’s strike out numbers. In
reality, no one cares how the closer gets it done, as long as he can get the
last three outs of the game. But this is fantasy baseball we are talking about
and numbers mean everything. He had only 41 strikeouts all year and in a year
where relievers set a Major League record for strikeouts per 9 innings (8.37),
Johnson was well below the league average. I would love to have him closing
down games for me in real life, but as a predicted top 5 closer in fantasy, I
would be very cautious taking him when there are others with greater value
below him.
7. Derek Jeter (NYY)
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| Derek Jeter |
Apart from the recent news that Jeter may start out his 2013
campaign on the DL, I had already made up my mind that Jeter would not produce
at the level he did last year. Jeter suffered a foot injury at the end of last
year, then fractured his ankle in the ALCS possibly as a result of playing on
that injured foot. Obviously, sidelining him at the beginning of the year is
just a precaution but it does make me worry about how productive Jeter really
can be this year.
He came off a great year where he had over 200 hits and hit
.316 but at 39 years of age and with a shaky ankle I am not sure he will be
able to put up similar numbers in 2013. Also, as a guy who hits the ball on the
ground a ton (63.7 percent), I don’t know if he will be able to beat out as
many infield singles on his bummed ankle. I have always loved Jeter and the way
he played the game, but as for a fantasy player, I feel as though his value is
dwindling fast.
6. Chase Headley (SD)
Chase Headley is seen to be a young and rising star in the MLB and his
numbers last year showed that he could be up for discussion as one of the top
hitting 3rd basemen in baseball. But where did his sudden numbers
come from? We are talking about a guy who hit 27 homeruns total between
2009-2011 and then erupted for 31 last year to go along with 115 RBIs.
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| Chase Headley |
This spring training, Headley did suffer a fracture to his
left thumb and he is likely to miss the beginning of the year. Regardless of
his injury, I believe that Headley isn’t likely to put up the same power
numbers as last year. Because of his career numbers, I find it hard to believe
that he could put up another 30 homeruns this year. As he is projected as the
number three 3rd basemen in a lot of drafts, I would be skeptical to
draft him as high expecting the same output as last year.
5. Alex Rios (CWS)
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| Alex Rios |
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|
Alex Rios has been known throughout his career to be an on
and off player. In 2011 he hit only .227 with 13 homeruns but then he bounced
back last year to hit .304 with 25 bombs. With this year slated to be a down
year, I am skeptical to believe that Rios will have another year like he did in 2012. There is also a possibility that he moves from 5th to 3rd
in the White Sox line up which could either greatly help or hurt fantasy owners
depending on Rios’ production.
When Rios is playing at his best, he could be considered one
of the top outfielders in the game; however, his track record has shown that
after a statistically solid year, he tends to tank. Rios is the kind of guy I
would love to have as my 4th outfielder in fantasy and if he plays
to his potential, he could work his way up to a starter, but I would be
cautious as to draft him high expecting another .300 season from him.
4. Jon Lester (BOS)
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Jon Lester
|
Lester had a rough year last year going 9-14 with a 4.82
ERA. It was an awful year for the Red Sox in general as they went an abysmal 69-93,
the worst in franchise history since 1965. In watching Lester pitch last year,
he just seemed to be off. Although the velocity was there, he seemed to lack
command and often left the ball up in the zone, resulting in his first full season
where he had more hits than innings pitched. And not only was he giving up
hits, but he was getting hit hard often.
Lester is the kind of guy that a lot of people expect to
bounce back in 2013 because from 2009-2011 he was one of the top statistical
pitchers in baseball. Maybe he just had a down year last year, but if Lester
doesn’t make some adjustments, I would not be surprised to see another down
year for the southpaw. He could be a solid reserve pitcher, but I would not
trust him in the number 2 slot where many predict he will be.
3. Ryan Dempster
(BOS)
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| Ryan Dempster |
Dempster started out the 2012 season on fire while posting a
sub 2.00 ERA for almost half of the season. His performance made him a hot
commodity at the trade deadline as playoff hopefuls attempted to boost their
starting rotations. He ultimately landed with the Rangers where he had an awful
second half of the season with a 5.09 ERA.
Many say that he just needs to get acquainted with the
American league and expect another solid season out of Dempster, but I only foresee
a mediocre season from Dempster as he now has to face one of the toughest
divisions in baseball. In coming to the American league for the second half of
the season, Dempster gave up almost the same amount of hits in 35 less innings
of work. Like Lester, I would not want to trust a guy like Dempster as my
number 2 fantasy pitcher.
2. Melky Cabrera
(TOR)
Despite all of the cloudiness surrounding Cabrera because of
his positive test for PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs) in the latter half of the 2012 season, the Blue Jays
decided to take a shot at the lefty outfielder. Cabrera set an unbelievable
mark last year hitting .346 before serving his 50 game suspension. Although there
is no evidence that Cabrera’s production will decrease as a result of his
stoppage of taking PEDs, drafting Melky high expecting similar numbers is
extremely risky.
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| Melky Cabrera |
Before the last two seasons where Cabrera was juicing, he
was a career .260 hitter without much pop. Recently, there have also been
rumors that Cabrera could serve another suspension if evidence comes up proving
that last year was not his first offense for taking PEDs. Maybe it’s just me,
but I’d rather not waste a solid OF draft pick on a guy that might not even end
up being in my lineup for the major chunk of the year.
1. Tim Lincecum (SF)
Tim, the freak, Lincecum put up some freaky numbers last
year for a 2 time Cy Young award winner. Despite winning consecutive Cy Young
awards in the 2008 and 2009 seasons as well as finishing in the top 10 in the
voting for 2010 and 2011 seasons, Lincecum finished the 2012 campaign with an
abysmal 5.18 ERA while going 10-15 on the year. Much of his struggles could be
attributed to his decline in his fastball velocity. Lincecum averaged 92.2 MPH on
his fastball in 2011 while he only averaged 90.3 MPH in 2012.
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| Tim Lincecum |
As a power pitcher his whole career, Lincecum has been able to blow
the ball by hitters while baffling them with his change-up. But it 2012, the
decline in his velocity made not only his fastball easier to hit, but his
change-up much less effective. There are many that believe Lincecum just had a down
year last year, but it was kind of strange to me that a player supposed to be
in the prime of his career at 28 years old would lose 2 full MPH off of
his fastball. Perhaps the doubters were right, that Lincecum’s small stature
and frame would not be able to hold for an extended MLB career. Perhaps
Lincecum recreates himself as a finesse pitcher in 2013, but as of right now, I
don’t trust him.
-Daniel Kolodin
The Royals were the best team in Spring Training this year,
because their young studs came out and raked. However, the key for the Royals
to carry their offensive success into the season will be Eric Hosmer, he needs
to be a big RBI guy for the Royals to be competitive. Last year he batted an
abysmal .232 with 14 homeruns and 60 RBIs, he needs to be somewhere in the .275
with 26 homeruns and 95 RBI range, numbers that are very attainable once he
gets over his growing pains.
